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Harry Stebbings delivers his annual state-of-venture-capital analysis. Key themes: the IPO window is reopening, AI is consuming all available capital, and the venture industry itself is consolidating — fewer funds, larger sizes, less diversity.
Canon
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Stebbings argues that venture capital returns are more luck-dependent than the industry admits. The best funds weren't smarter — they met the right founders at the right time. But the best firms maximize their return on that luck through rigorous portfolio support.
Highlights
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Venture capital is consolidating into a winner-take-most structure — and this is bad for innovation
Stebbings presents data showing the top 20 VC firms now capture 80% of all venture returns. Emerging managers — who historically funded the most innovative companies — are being squeezed out by LP preference for brand-name firms.