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Choiceology · April 8, 2024 · 30m
Against All Odds: How We Misestimate Rare Events
Why we systematically misjudge the probability of rare events — both overestimating dramatic risks (plane crashes, shark attacks) and underestimating mundane ones (car accidents, heart disease). The psychology of probability neglect and availability bias.
Highlights
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Availability bias — we judge probability by how easily examples come to mind, not by actual frequency
Milkman: availability bias causes people to overestimate the probability of vivid, memorable events (terrorism, plane crashes) and underestimate the probability of common but less memorable events (car accidents, heart disease). Media coverage amplifies this distortion.•
Probability neglect — when emotions are high, people ignore probability entirely and respond to the possibility alone
Milkman: when an outcome is emotionally charged (a child being kidnapped, a terrorist attack), people respond to the possibility rather than the probability. A 1-in-a-million risk and a 1-in-a-thousand risk feel equally threatening when the outcome is sufficiently horrifying.