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Decoder · December 15, 2025 · 55m

The Looming AI Monetization Cliff

Examining the gap between AI company valuations and revenue. Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to IPO in 2026, but can they justify their valuations with actual revenue?

Canon

Each massive AI funding round raises the valuation baseline, requiring proportionally larger revenue growth to satisfy investors. The expectation treadmill keeps accelerating.
AI companies present narratives of inevitable success (false self) while their financials tell a different story of unsustainable burn rates (true self).