The Indicator

The Indicator explores why pet care costs have surged 60% since 2019. The answer involves the Baumol effect, Americas love for their pets, and the shortage of veterinarians.

The Indicator examines the wage growth story: low-wage workers saw the fastest real wage growth in decades (restaurant, retail, warehouse), while white-collar professionals saw stagnant or declining real wages. The income distribution is compressing from the bottom up.

The Indicator explains how Temu and Shein exploit the 'de minimis' tariff exemption: packages valued under $800 enter the US duty-free and with minimal inspection. This loophole allows Chinese companies to ship directly to consumers, bypassing tariffs that traditional importers pay.

The Indicator explores why new car prices remain elevated at $49,000 average despite the supply chain normalization. The team traces the cause: automakers discovered during COVID that selling fewer, more expensive cars is more profitable than selling more, cheaper ones.

The Indicator examines Walmart's e-commerce turnaround: online sales grew 23% in 2024, grocery delivery reaches 95% of the US population, and the company is using its 4,700 stores as fulfillment centers — turning its biggest liability (physical stores) into its biggest advantage.

The Indicator reviews whether the much-discussed soft landing actually materialized: inflation down from 9% to 3%, unemployment below 4%, GDP growth positive. The economic equivalent of landing the plane without crashing.

The Indicator challenges the narrative that America has become a gig economy. BLS data shows that independent contractors make up roughly the same share of the workforce (6-7%) as they did in 2005. The gig economy story was driven by app visibility, not actual growth.

The Indicator examines the aging workforce: the share of workers over 65 has doubled from 3% to 7% since 2000, and the average retirement age has risen from 57 to 62. The team explores whether this reflects choice (people want to work longer) or necessity (they can't afford to retire).

The Indicator examines 'degree inflation' — the trend of employers requiring bachelor's degrees for jobs that previously didn't need them. Research shows 60% of jobs listing degree requirements don't actually need a degree for the core work.

The Indicator explains why Social Security faces insolvency by 2035: the ratio of workers to retirees has dropped from 5.1:1 in 1960 to 2.8:1 today, and will reach 2.3:1 by 2035. The program is pay-as-you-go — current workers fund current retirees — and the math no longer works.

The Indicator examines why US corporate profits are at all-time highs as a share of GDP: roughly 12%, up from 6-7% historically. The team explores whether this reflects genuine productivity gains or market power that allows companies to charge higher prices.

The Indicator explores the 'friendship recession' — a 30-year decline in close friendships, especially among American men. They frame loneliness as an economic problem: lonely people are less productive, use more healthcare, and earn less.

The Indicator maps 'daycare deserts' — areas where there are more than 3 children per licensed daycare slot. Half of Americans live in daycare deserts, which force parents (usually mothers) out of the workforce, reducing GDP and widening the gender earnings gap.

The Indicator separates AI hype from evidence on job displacement. The team finds that AI is more likely to augment knowledge workers than replace them, while the jobs most at risk are repetitive cognitive tasks — data entry, basic writing, customer service — not physical labor.

The Indicator investigates the restaurant paradox: Americans are spending more than ever on dining out, but restaurant closures hit a 5-year high. The team traces the cause to a cost squeeze: food, labor, and rent all increased faster than menu prices.

The Indicator covers the Bank of Japan's historic rate hike — ending 17 years of zero or negative interest rates. The team explains why this small change sent shockwaves through global markets, unwinding the yen carry trade and triggering a global selloff.

The Indicator quantifies the economic cost of loneliness: $6,700 per person per year in excess healthcare spending, $154 billion in employer absenteeism costs, and reduced GDP growth from lower worker productivity.

The Indicator explains the home insurance crisis in Florida: major insurers have left the state, premiums have tripled, and the state-run insurer of last resort now covers 1.4 million policies. The team traces the root cause to climate change, litigation abuse, and moral hazard.

The Indicator explains the coming physician shortage: 86,000 doctors short by 2036, driven by aging population (more patients), aging physicians (retiring), and an artificial bottleneck in medical residency slots funded by Congress.

The Indicator investigates the claim that Wall Street is buying all the houses. The data tells a more nuanced story: institutional investors own roughly 3% of single-family rentals, but their impact is concentrated in specific Sun Belt markets where they buy 15-25% of homes.

The Indicator explains why childcare costs $15,000-$25,000 per year in most US metros — more than in-state college tuition. The problem is structural: childcare is labor-intensive, can't be automated, and is regulated to maintain low child-to-caregiver ratios.

The Indicator investigates 'ghost jobs' — job listings that companies post with no intention of filling. Research suggests 20-40% of online job listings are ghost jobs, posted to build talent pipelines, satisfy internal processes, or signal company growth.

The Indicator traces the economics of a $5 Shein t-shirt: the cotton costs $0.50, the labor costs $0.20, shipping costs $0.30, and the environmental cost (water, chemicals, carbon) is estimated at $7 — more than the retail price. The consumer doesn't pay the real cost.

The Indicator explains shrinkflation — when companies reduce product sizes while keeping prices the same. From smaller cereal boxes to thinner toilet paper rolls, shrinkflation is stealth inflation that escapes consumer awareness.

The Indicator examines the explosion of legal sports gambling since the 2018 Supreme Court ruling: Americans wagered $120B in 2023, up from nearly zero legally in 2017. The team explores who benefits (platforms, states) and who loses (problem gamblers, young men).

The Indicator presents the data on remote work: roughly 28% of work days are now remote (down from 50% during COVID but up from 5% pre-COVID). The team finds that remote work has stabilized and is likely permanent for knowledge workers.

The Indicator investigates 'tip creep' — the spread of digital tipping prompts to businesses that never traditionally accepted tips: self-checkout kiosks, takeout counters, car washes, and even airport shops. The team explores how technology changed tipping culture.