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The All-In Podcast · January 6, 2024 · 95m
E160: 2024 Predictions — Markets, Tech, Politics, and More
The four besties make their annual predictions for 2024: AI progress, market performance, election outcomes, and geopolitics. Each host puts their reputation on the line with specific, falsifiable predictions.
Canon
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Friedberg argues that investors should focus on what they can control (analysis quality, diversification, position sizing) rather than what they cannot control (market movements, political outcomes, black swans).
Highlights
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Annual prediction episodes create accountability that most pundits avoid — being wrong in public is valuable
The hosts review their 2023 predictions (mostly wrong) before making 2024 predictions. The willingness to be publicly wrong distinguishes them from pundits who make vague claims that can never be falsified.