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The All-In Podcast #160 · December 29, 2023 · 105m
2024 Predictions: Markets, Tech, Politics
The annual predictions episode. Each bestie makes bold calls for 2024: Chamath predicts interest rate cuts, Sacks predicts AI regulation battles, Friedberg predicts breakthroughs in protein engineering, Calacanis predicts a startup funding recovery.
Canon
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Chamath observes that the S&P 500's strong 2023 didn't make investors satisfied — it made them expect more. Each year of strong returns resets the baseline, and investors feel disappointed by returns that would have seemed extraordinary a year earlier.
Highlights
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Prediction markets are better than expert panels at forecasting — including this expert panel
The besties review their 2023 predictions (mostly wrong) and acknowledge that prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) consistently outperform individual experts and even expert panels. Their own track record is evidence.