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Milkman explores why we seek information that confirms our existing beliefs and dismiss evidence that challenges them. From misdiagnosed patients to failed investments, confirmation bias is the most expensive cognitive error humans make.
Canon
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Milkman shows that confirmation bias doesn't just filter information — it reinterprets it. People shown the exact same data draw opposite conclusions based on their prior beliefs. Contradicting evidence is used to STRENGTHEN, not weaken, the original belief.
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Milkman cites research showing that mindfulness practices measurably reduce confirmation bias by training the ability to observe information before automatically interpreting it through existing belief filters.
Highlights
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Confirmation bias — we seek, interpret, and remember information that confirms our existing beliefs
Milkman: confirmation bias operates at every stage of information processing. We search for confirming evidence (selective exposure), interpret ambiguous evidence as confirming (biased assimilation), and remember confirming evidence better (selective recall). The result: our beliefs become self-reinforcing regardless of their accuracy.•
The pre-mortem as confirmation bias antidote — imagining failure forces a search for disconfirming evidence
Milkman: Gary Klein's pre-mortem technique asks you to imagine that your decision has already failed and to explain why. This reversal forces the brain out of confirmation mode and into critique mode, surfacing risks and problems that optimism and confirmation bias would otherwise hide.