← Home
Cognitive Revolution · December 20, 2025 · 90m

AI Scouting Report: Q4 2025 Year in Review

Nathan Labenz
SpotifyApple Podcasts

Year-end comprehensive review of AI progress in 2025. Labenz evaluates which predictions came true, which surprised, and what the trajectory implies for 2026.

Canon

•
Stoic dichotomy in AI forecasting — control your analysis, not the outcomes
Labenz applies the Stoic dichotomy to AI prediction: you can control the rigor of your analysis methodology but not whether your predictions come true.
ClaudeChatGPTGemini
•
Courage to update beliefs publicly — intellectual honesty as practiced skill
Labenz models intellectual courage by publicly tracking where his predictions were wrong, treating public belief-updating as a learnable practice.
ClaudeChatGPTGemini